Highest temperature in Taipei on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei entered August already in a very hot seasonal pattern, with nearby climate guides showing typical early-August highs around 32–35°C and very warm overnight lows, which leaves little room for a materially cooler outcome at Songshan Airport. The market’s 0% yes price is hard to reconcile with the city’s late-summer baseline, and it implies traders see the current range as effectively capped well below the hotter end of the usual distribution.[2][4][18]

Historical August readings also argue for keeping the upper tail in view rather than assuming a mild day. Taipei has recorded 38°C in August within the last decade, and month-level summaries point to repeated 33–34°C daytime highs, so a print in the mid-30s is not out of line for the season.[9][10][17] That said, the exact settlement outcome depends on the highest official reading at Taipei Songshan Airport rather than broader city averages, so even a hot Taipei day can resolve a lower band if cloud, rain, or an early convective burst limits the station maximum.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the same-day forecast trend, afternoon shower coverage, and any typhoon-related disruption to local weather patterns, all of which can move the station maximum quickly in a subtropical summer setting.[10][17] Songshan’s location in urban Taipei also makes it sensitive to timing: if the first half of the day is already warm and clear, the maximum can be set before later thunderstorms develop, while persistent cloud or rain would lean the result down towards the lower bands.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.