Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Singapore's equatorial climate delivers consistent heat year-round, with May sitting squarely in the pre-monsoon period when afternoon temperatures typically peak between 32–34°C at Changi Airport. The settlement window closes at midday on 26 May 2026, meaning only morning and early-afternoon readings will count towards resolution. No significant weather system changes have emerged in the past 48 hours that would materially shift expectations for this specific date.

Historical records from Changi Airport show May daily maxima rarely exceed 35°C, with the station's all-time May high standing at 36.0°C (recorded in 2016). The 0% crowd probability currently reflected suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as predetermined within a narrow band—likely the 32–34°C range that encompasses roughly 80% of May observations over the past two decades. This compressed probability distribution leaves little room for either exceptional heat or anomalous cooling.

The Inter-monsoon period (May–September) occasionally produces localised thunderstorms that can suppress afternoon peaks, though these typically arrive after the settlement window. The Meteorological Service Singapore issues daily forecasts available online, and any significant deviation from seasonal norms would appear in their 5-day outlook. Traders should monitor whether any tropical systems develop in the Indian Ocean or South China Sea during late May, as these can influence moisture patterns and cloud cover affecting peak temperatures.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.