Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25?

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Market context

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily temperature ranges throughout the year, with May typically registering highs between 31–33°C at Changi Airport. The 0% crowd probability on this market reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will capture the day's peak, rather than doubt about whether readings will fall within Singapore's normal seasonal envelope. Historical data from the past decade shows May 25th highs have clustered around 31–32°C, with only occasional excursions toward 33°C during particularly intense afternoon heating.

The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical records from Changi Airport Station, the official reference point for Singapore's aviation weather. Traders should note that tropical convection patterns—particularly the intensity and timing of afternoon thunderstorms—create the primary variance in daily maxima. The Inter-monsoon period (May sits between the Southwest and Northeast monsoons) can produce sudden cloud cover that suppresses afternoon peaks, or clear skies that allow uninterrupted solar heating. Recent meteorological patterns across Southeast Asia have shown variable moisture availability, which will directly influence whether May 25th '26 tracks toward the cooler or warmer end of the typical range.

The market's current pricing reflects genuine forecasting difficulty rather than any exceptional weather signal. Traders assessing this outcome should monitor seasonal monsoon transition timing and any anomalous pressure systems developing in the weeks preceding settlement, as these remain the primary drivers of daily temperature variance in Singapore's otherwise stable climate.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.