Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The 0% YES probability for the highest temperature in Singapore on July 1 being below 32°C has shifted sharply after the Meteorological Service Singapore updated its Southwest Monsoon forecast, now projecting above-average heat through August. This realignment reflects a sudden consensus that the monsoon will deliver drier, hotter conditions than previously modelled, pushing the market’s frontrunner to 32°C at 99% probability, with 33°C trailing at just 1%.

Historical July data frames this move: Singapore’s average high in July is 31°C, with the month’s peak average occurring on 7 July at 28.6°C, yet recent monsoon-driven spikes have pushed daily highs to 31–32°C across the first week. The current 0% probability for sub-32°C outcomes aligns with the 44.5% market weight on 32°C and 31.5% on 31°C seen on Polymarket, confirming that climatological norms now favour the upper end of the range.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground reports for Singapore Changi Airport (WSSS), which resolve the market, and watch for any sudden monsoon shifts announced by the Meteorological Service Singapore. A recent forecast update from the service, cited on Polymarket, confirms the drier, hotter trajectory, making the 32°C threshold the critical dependency for settlement. No further announcements are scheduled before 1 July, so the focus remains on real-time temperature readings.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.