Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 26 May 2026 will be shaped by the onset of the pre-monsoon season in southern China, when thermal heating and moisture convergence typically drive afternoon temperatures into the high 20s to low 30s Celsius. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting updated seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder until nearer-term meteorological data becomes available. Late May sits at the transition between spring and early summer in Shenzhen, with historical daily maxima ranging from 28–32°C depending on cloud cover and wind patterns from the South China Sea.

Comparable May 26 observations from Shenzhen Bao'an Airport show variability driven by subtropical pressure systems. In years with weak high-pressure ridges, sea breezes moderate afternoon peaks; conversely, when continental air masses dominate, temperatures can exceed 32°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the event date, meaning traders will have access to morning observations but not the full daily maximum until after resolution.

Watch for updates to the Asian summer monsoon onset timing and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during May, both of which influence Shenzhen's thermal profile. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended-range forecasts 10–14 days ahead; such releases in mid-May will provide the first concrete signals for temperature ranges. Local air quality and urban heat island effects at the airport station can also shift readings by 1–2°C relative to surrounding areas.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.