Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 4?

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Market context

Shenzhen's early June weather is entering the tail end of late spring, with the city transitioning towards its summer monsoon season. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the resolution mechanics or treating this as a straightforward meteorological forecast rather than a binary bet. Temperature readings at Bao'an International Airport typically range between 28–34°C in early June, depending on cloud cover and afternoon convection patterns. Recent years show considerable day-to-day variability during this transitional period, with occasional spikes above 35°C when high-pressure systems dominate, though such extremes remain less common than sustained mid-30s readings.

Historical data from Shenzhen's June records indicates that the highest daily temperatures cluster around 31–33°C under typical conditions, with outliers reaching 36°C or higher roughly once per decade during early June. The 2023 and 2024 early-June observations at Bao'an showed maxima between 29–32°C on most days, providing a reasonable baseline for assessing where the crowd's implied distribution might sit. Traders should monitor the Asian-Pacific weather pattern forecasts released by the China Meteorological Administration in the week preceding 4 June 2026, particularly any alerts regarding subtropical high-pressure systems or tropical moisture surges that could push temperatures materially higher than the seasonal norm. Wunderground's historical archive will be the sole arbiter of settlement, so familiarity with their measurement protocols at Bao'an is essential for calibrating position confidence.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.