Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

A hot, humid start to the day in Shenzhen keeps this market anchored to the low end of the summer range, but the first-hours reading still leaves room for a higher afternoon peak if the cloud and shower cover breaks up. Recent airport reports show temperatures around 84–88°F, with heavy humidity and mostly clear to overcast conditions, while the latest short-range outlook points to a high near 90°F with only a morning shower and possible late rain.[1][3][7]

That probability profile is easier to read against July’s normal pattern at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport. AccuWeather’s monthly guide puts July highs broadly between 84° and 94°F, with an average high of 89°F, so the market is really asking whether today finishes near the lower-middle of the seasonal band or pushes towards the upper end.[2] The current 0% YES pricing implies traders are treating a materially hot reading as unlikely, despite the airport already sitting in warm, moist air before the main heating period.[1][7]

For the rest of the session, the key catalysts are local shower timing, sunshine breaks and any thunderstorm development over the airport corridor, because those will determine whether the day’s maximum is capped early or lifted later. Forecasts are mixed but broadly unsettled: one source flags an a.m. shower, mostly sunny intervals and a chance of rain late, while another warns of a very high precipitation chance and possible local thunderstorms.[3][6] The official resolution will come from the Wunderground daily history page for Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, so the market should stay sensitive to any rapid forecast revision before the settlement window closes.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 22? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.