Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?

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Market context

Shanghai's weather on 26 May 2026 will be shaped by the onset of early summer conditions in the Yangtze River Delta. Late May typically marks the transition from spring into the pre-monsoon period, with daytime highs ranging between 28–32°C at Pudong International Airport. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder awaiting seasonal forecasts closer to the date. Current atmospheric patterns favour warm but not exceptional temperatures for this time of year, though the specific daily maximum remains highly dependent on cloud cover and any passing weather systems.

Historical data from Pudong station shows May 26 temperatures have varied considerably year-on-year. Over the past decade, highs on this date have ranged from 24°C to 31°C, with most years clustering around 28–30°C. Extreme heat events (above 35°C) are rare in late May for Shanghai, though not unprecedented during particularly strong subtropical high-pressure systems. The absence of trading activity likely reflects the market's distance from settlement; most weather prediction markets see meaningful volume only within two to three weeks of resolution.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts released by China's Meteorological Administration in early May, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Any significant shifts in the East Asian subtropical jet stream or early arrival of monsoon moisture could alter the baseline expectation. The settlement window closes at midday on 26 May, requiring final resolution against Wunderground's recorded data from Pudong station.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.