Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 4 June 2026 will be shaped by the onset of the East Asian summer monsoon and pre-typhoon season patterns typical of early June. The city sits at the threshold between spring and full summer conditions, with historical June temperatures at Pudong International Airport typically ranging from 24°C to 32°C. Current meteorological positioning suggests standard early-summer conditions rather than anomalous heat, though the 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will record the daily high rather than genuine doubt about whether measurable heat will occur.

Comparable June days at Shanghai's airport station show that temperatures between 28°C and 31°C dominate the distribution, with readings above 33°C occurring roughly once per decade during June. The 2023 and 2024 June records at this station peaked in the 30–32°C range under typical monsoon-influenced conditions. Extreme heat events (above 35°C) in June are rare at this location, typically requiring either an early heat dome or pre-typhoon atmospheric compression—neither of which current seasonal patterns suggest for early June 2026.

Traders should monitor the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system's position in late May and early June, which determines whether warm southwesterly flow or cooler maritime air dominates Shanghai. The China Meteorological Administration issues its official June outlook in late May, providing the most reliable forward guidance on regional temperature anomalies. Typhoon activity tracking from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center will also signal whether any pre-storm heating occurs in the days immediately preceding 4 June.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.