Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is entering its peak rainy season today, with thunderstorms and light rain expected to suppress daytime highs well below the 35°C threshold that would trigger a "YES" outcome. The crowd-implied probability of 0% reflects the immediate reality that wet, cloudy conditions are the dominant forecast for June 29 at Pudong Airport, making extreme heat virtually impossible under current meteorological models.

Historical data for late June in Shanghai shows that while sunny days can push temperatures to 30–35°C, frequent rainfall typically keeps highs hovering between 25–30°C, rarely exceeding 32°C. Over the past decade, the highest recorded temperature on June 29 at Pudong has never breached 34°C, and the average high for the month sits at 32°C, reinforcing the market's certainty that a record-breaking heatwave is not on the cards.

Traders should monitor the 24-hour precipitation forecast from Wunderground and any sudden shifts in the East Asian monsoon pattern, as a dry, sunny break could briefly elevate temperatures. Recent updates from AccuWeather indicate daily highs for June 2026 will range between 26–29°C, with overnight lows of 23–25°C, confirming that the wet season will persist through the settlement window and keep temperatures firmly in the lower range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.