Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

Shanghai is currently in the peak of its plum rain season, with today—June 27—holding the year’s highest statistical chance of a wet day at 45%, a factor that typically suppresses maximum temperatures by keeping highs near 25–30°C rather than allowing spikes above 35°C[2][3]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a higher temperature range reflects this immediate meteorological reality: heavy cloud cover and frequent rainfall are expected to dominate the day, preventing the intense solar heating required for extreme heat[2].

Historically, late June in Shanghai has seen occasional heat spikes, with temperatures reaching 38°C on June 27, 2025, but such events are outliers that occur only when the plum rain breaks and sunny conditions prevail[5]. In typical years, the average high for June is 27°C, and the frequent wet days (averaging 12 per month) keep temperatures from becoming excessively high, making the current 0% probability a rational assessment of the prevailing wet and humid pattern[3][5].

Traders should monitor the official weather bureau’s hourly updates for any sudden shift in cloud cover or a break in the rain, as a rapid transition to sunny conditions could trigger a temperature spike within hours[3]. While no specific announcements are scheduled for today, the dependency on the plum rain season’s persistence is critical; if the rain ceases and the UV index (which can reach 11 in June) becomes unobstructed, temperatures could rise sharply, though current forecasts suggest this is unlikely[2][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.