Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 1 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders are effectively betting on conditions during the morning hours of 1 June in Shanghai local time. Current crowd positioning at 0% YES suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity on this particular market.

June marks the transition into Shanghai's early summer season, with typical daily highs ranging from 28–32°C depending on weather systems. Historical June records at Pudong show peaks around 35–37°C during heat waves, though such extremes occur irregularly. The 0% probability currently assigned implies traders expect the highest temperature to fall outside whatever range this market's YES condition specifies—likely indicating either a very narrow band or an unusually high threshold that June weather patterns rarely breach.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May, which typically provide reliable 7–10 day outlooks for Shanghai. Any significant heat wave warnings or subtropical high-pressure systems tracking towards eastern China in the days before 1 June would shift expectations materially. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical records for that specific station, making data availability and measurement consistency the only operational variables once the date arrives.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.