Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's summer heat has intensified over the past 48 hours as a subtropical high-pressure system settles across the Yangtze River Delta region. Daytime temperatures at Pudong International Airport have climbed into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with humidity levels exceeding 75 per cent. The meteorological setup for 28 July favours continued heat accumulation, though the precise daily maximum remains dependent on cloud cover timing and any convective activity that might develop during afternoon hours.

Historical records from Shanghai's airport station show July typically ranks among the year's hottest months, with daily maxima regularly reaching 34–36°C during the core summer period. The 0 per cent crowd probability appears disconnected from seasonal norms; even conservative forecasts for late July typically anticipate temperatures in the 32–35°C band. Comparable heat events from previous Julys have consistently produced readings well above 30°C, establishing a baseline expectation substantially higher than the current market pricing suggests.

The China Meteorological Administration's latest 10-day outlook, updated 26 July, maintains its forecast for above-normal temperatures across eastern China through month-end, with no significant cooling systems predicted before the settlement window closes. Real-time satellite imagery and surface pressure charts show the high-pressure dome remaining anchored, reducing the likelihood of cloud-induced temperature suppression. Traders should monitor any overnight updates from the CMA or sudden shifts in the upper-atmosphere pattern, though the current synoptic situation points toward sustained heat rather than anomalous coolness.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.