Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is bracing for a hot, humid day with rain expected, as the city’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 is currently forecast to reach 36°C at Pudong International Airport, with a 90% probability of precipitation and scattered afternoon showers [3][6]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for any outcome above this threshold reflects the immediate meteorological reality: heavy cloud cover, high humidity at 84%, and rain likely to suppress peak temperatures well below historical extremes [2][6].

Historically, July in Shanghai sees daytime highs between 30–38°C, with rare spikes to 40°C in extreme years, but such events are uncommon and typically occur under clear, dry conditions rather than the wet, muggy pattern now in place [7]. The current 36°C forecast aligns with the average high of 33°C (93°F) for the month, suggesting the market’s pricing is consistent with typical mid-July behaviour rather than outlier heat [1][7].

Traders should monitor hourly updates from Wunderground and local aviation reports for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind direction, which could alter the day’s peak temperature [2]. A key catalyst is the 80% chance of precipitation and expected 1–3mm of rain, which will likely cap temperatures unless a dry break occurs in the afternoon [3][6]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC, real-time data from the Pudong station will be decisive in confirming the final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.