Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is currently experiencing heavy rain this morning with temperatures hovering around 30°C, a sharp deviation from the scorching highs typical of mid-July at Pudong International Airport. The 0% YES probability reflects this immediate wetness, as cloud cover and precipitation have suppressed the thermal buildup required to breach extreme temperature thresholds today.

Historically, July in Shanghai is one of the hottest months, with daytime temperatures routinely exceeding 35°C and extreme peaks reaching 40°C in previous years [5]. While the average high sits near 32°C, the month frequently delivers 7–15 days where highs surpass 35°C, making a 0% implied probability for any significant heat event unusually low for this season unless the rain persists through the afternoon [5][7]. The current muggy conditions and 76% average humidity usually amplify heat stress, yet today’s precipitation acts as a cooling anchor [5].

Traders should monitor the afternoon cloud dissipation and wind shifts, as the forecast indicates a transition to cloudy skies by evening with winds gusting up to 52kt [3]. The key catalyst is whether the heavy rain clears before the 3 PM peak heat window, which historically delivers the day’s maximum temperature [7]. If the sky remains overcast or rain continues, the temperature will likely stay capped near 30°C, validating the current low probability; however, any rapid clearing could trigger a sudden spike toward 35°C or higher, altering the settlement outcome before the 12:00Z deadline [1][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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