Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is currently experiencing early morning thunderstorms with a forecast high of 92°F (33°C) for Friday, 10 July, following a night of overcast skies and heavy rain. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific high-temperature range reflects the immediate volatility of the weather, where a single passing cloud or rain shower can drastically alter the peak temperature recorded at the station. Traders should note that the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, meaning the final resolution depends entirely on the conditions between now and midday.

Historical data frames this low probability as a rational response to July’s typical variability rather than an anomaly. In Shanghai, July is one of the hottest months, with daily highs typically peaking around 3 PM and often exceeding 35°C (95°F), yet the month also sees 11 rainy days on average as the plum rainy season concludes [5][9]. While the average high for July is 32°C (90°F), extreme highs can reach 40°C (104°F) in some years, making any single temperature range a precarious bet when the sky remains broken and wet [5]. The current 10% chance of partly cloudy conditions for Friday suggests the peak temperature may fall well below the monthly extremes, aligning with the market’s cautious stance [3].

Traders must watch the hourly updates from Wunderground and the National Weather Service for ZSPD, as the resolution source is the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day [7]. The key catalyst is the timing of the morning thunderstorms; if they clear rapidly before midday, solar radiation could spike the temperature, whereas persistent cloud cover will suppress it [2]. Recent forecasts indicate a 10% chance of rain for Friday, but the preceding 80–90% likelihood of precipitation over the last 24 hours means the ground remains saturated, increasing evaporative cooling and limiting peak heat [3][4]. No official announcements are expected, so the market will resolve purely on real-time sensor data from the airport station.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.