Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is entering the market period with a hot, unstable setup: the latest forecasts point to a high near the mid-30s °C, but also to a strong chance of rain and thunderstorms through 9 August, which can cap the realised peak if showers arrive early. Recent model runs and forecast pages are split between a very warm daytime profile and heavy precipitation risk, with one outlook showing 36°C / 26°C and another putting Sunday’s high around 29–29°C under heavy rain.[2][14][11]

That combination matters because the market resolves to the highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, not the headline day-high figure. For a late-summer Shanghai August slot, the usual pattern is still for daytime maxima to cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C, and the current 0% YES implies the crowd is effectively pricing in a result below the market’s top temperature bands even though the broader August climate is hot and humid.[1][16][12]

For traders, the key catalysts are the next 12–24 hours of forecast updates, the timing and intensity of precipitation, and whether convection arrives before the daily maximum is logged at Pudong. If the rain band weakens or shifts later, the airport can still print a higher observation early in the day; if heavy rain and wind verify on schedule, the observed peak is more likely to stay suppressed despite the broader heat.[4][11][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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