Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai has started the settlement day in typical midsummer heat rather than in a cooler transitional pattern: Weather Underground shows 92°F, or about 33°C, with partly cloudy conditions at 8:01 am CST, and AccuWeather’s same-day outlook keeps the city hot despite a morning thunderstorm and showers later. The key change in the last 24-48 hours is the addition of a more active rain-and-storm signal, which can trim the peak a little if cloud cover and showers arrive early enough, but it does not remove the basic heat backdrop.[8][3]

For context, Shanghai in August usually sits in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, and several forecasting services put today’s high around 32-35°C, which is consistent with the seasonal norm rather than an outlier. That matters for this market because the current 0% crowd price implies a very low chance of a high temperature above the lower resolution bands, yet the live forecast is already well into the 30s and Shanghai’s late-summer climatology supports short-lived spikes when sunshine breaks through between showers.[1][5][10]

The main catalysts to watch are the timing of thunderstorms, the extent of cloud cover, and any change in the typhoon-related warnings that are already shaping the forecast. AccuWeather is flagging a blue typhoon warning for the wider period, with rain and wind expected to intensify after today, while Timeanddate and Weather Underground both keep the immediate high near 92-93°F before deterioration later in the day. For resolution, the market uses the highest figure in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, so the intraday peak, not the headline summary, will decide the band.[2][6][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

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