Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai has started the day in the familiar midsummer heat band, with forecast highs clustered around the mid-30s Celsius and overnight conditions already warm and humid. Recent model-based forecasts put 5 August near **34–35°C** for the city, while broader August guidance still points to daily highs mostly between **82°F and 92°F** (about **28–33°C**), which makes a top reading in the low-to-mid 30s the base case rather than an outlier.[1][2][3]

That framing helps explain why the crowd’s **0% YES** looks detached from the weather setup rather than from any single dramatic signal. Shanghai’s August climate is usually hot, humid and rain-prone, with average highs around **31–32°C** and frequent variability from showers and sea-breeze effects, so the key question is not whether it will be hot, but whether the afternoon maximum lands a degree or two higher or lower than forecast.[4][5][16] Recent observations at Shanghai stations also show temperatures already in the high 20s to low 30s, leaving scope for a daytime peak if clouds thin and rain holds off.[7][13]

For traders, the main catalysts are the timing of convection, cloud cover and any shower or thunderstorm bands that move through during the late morning to mid-afternoon window, because those are the factors most likely to suppress the daily high or, if delayed, allow a sharper spike. Forecasts currently mention patchy rain or scattered showers for 5 August, alongside strong heat and high humidity, so the most useful updates will be short-range forecast revisions and live observations from the airport station rather than monthly averages.[3][11][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.