Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is in its peak summer heat again, and the immediate shift in the last 24–48 hours is that the day has now moved from forecast territory into the settlement window, so the market is no longer about monthly norms but about the actual airport maximum that prints before noon UTC. August is the city’s hottest month on average, with daily highs typically in the low 30s Celsius and occasional spikes into the mid-to-upper 30s, so a 0% crowd-implied probability on an outlier range would only make sense if traders expect the day to finish well below the hottest historical band.[1][4][9]

That is a poor month for complacency: Shanghai has recorded August highs above 39C in recent years, including 39.5C on 24 August 2025, and broader historical sources place the city’s all-time peak at 41C.[2][5][15] By contrast, climatology around early August still centres on highs near 31–32C, so the market is effectively weighing whether today produces a routine hot-summer maximum or a genuine heatwave reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport.[6][8][12]

For traders, the key catalyst is the airport station’s sequence of hourly observations before the 12:00Z settlement cut-off, plus any late-day convection, cloud cover, or rainfall that can cap the maximum temperature despite oppressive humidity. Shanghai’s weather sources for early August show a narrow normal range but meaningful upside on hot days, and current monthly guidance points to highs around 32C with daily ranges that can still run several degrees above average, leaving the final print dependent on how quickly heat builds after sunrise.[8][10][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.