Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 14 August 2026 will be shaped by the city's late summer monsoon patterns, when afternoon highs typically range between 32–35°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a narrow observation window that depends entirely on morning and early-afternoon readings from Pudong International Airport's weather station. No significant weather system changes have emerged in the past 48 hours that would materially shift expectations from the seasonal norm for that date.

Historical August temperatures at Pudong show consistent clustering in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius during the second fortnight, with extreme heat days (36°C+) occurring in roughly 15–20% of years during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific threshold being tested or are waiting for clearer atmospheric data as the date approaches. Shanghai's August weather remains relatively predictable compared to spring or autumn transitions, though occasional tropical systems can produce outlier readings.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 14 August, which typically provide 7–10 day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August could alter atmospheric conditions, though such systems more commonly affect coastal provinces before reaching Shanghai. The resolution methodology—using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—means the precise station recording and its timing will determine settlement, making data source verification critical as the date nears.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

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