Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 12 August 2026 will depend primarily on the intensity and timing of any typhoon activity or monsoon systems affecting the Yangtze River Delta during that period. Early August typically marks the tail end of Shanghai's summer peak, when daily highs routinely exceed 35°C, though the arrival of tropical systems can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall or intensify heat through pre-storm atmospheric conditions.

Historical August records for Shanghai Pudong International Airport show maximum temperatures have ranged from 28°C during typhoon-affected days to 39°C during clear, high-pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature thresholds offered or expect conditions that fall outside the highest ranges typically seen. August 2025 data and any emerging climate pattern forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration will provide the most reliable baseline for understanding what constitutes an outlier versus typical conditions for that date.

The key variable traders should monitor is typhoon track forecasting from late July onwards. The Western Pacific typhoon season peaks in August, and any system tracking towards the East China Sea would substantially alter Shanghai's weather profile within 7–10 days of formation. Additionally, the East Asian summer monsoon's strength in early August influences atmospheric moisture and convective activity. Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration typically become reliable 10–14 days in advance, providing the critical window for reassessing probability distributions before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.