Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is entering the day under warm, unsettled conditions, with the latest public forecasts pointing to a humid, rain-affected setup rather than a clean heat spike. Time and Date’s Shanghai forecast for 10 August shows 83/78 °F with flash-flood wording, 99% precipitation chance and an overnight reading already in the low 80s °F, while Weather Underground’s Shanghai history page shows the station’s August daily high climatology is around 90 °F, so the market is currently pricing against a fairly ordinary summer ceiling rather than an exceptional surge.[14][9]

That is consistent with how Shanghai typically behaves in August: highs are usually in the low 30s °C, but the spread is wide enough that a hot, humid afternoon can still clear the mid-30s °C on some days. Recent comparable August readings in the city have ranged from the low 30s °C to the mid-30s °C, with Weather API showing 8 August 2026 at 33.4 °C and TravelChinaGuide listing 10 August’s historical high at 35.5 °C, which frames the 0% yes probability as a view that today will struggle to reach the very top end of the local summer range.[6][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are the hourly evolution of rain bands, cloud cover and humidity around Shanghai Pudong International Airport, because the settlement source is the Weather Underground Daily Observations table for that station, not a headline summary. If convection clears later in the day, temperatures can still edge up sharply in a short window; if showers persist, the daily maximum may stay several degrees below the August norm. The most relevant updates will therefore be the station’s live observations and any near-term forecast adjustments for precipitation timing and intensity.[9][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

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