Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 26 May will be shaped by the transition into early summer, when the Korean peninsula typically experiences warming ahead of the monsoon season. Late May temperatures at Incheon International Airport—the official settlement station—have shifted notably warmer over the past two decades, with mean highs now consistently exceeding 24°C compared to historical norms of around 22°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or have positioned heavily against extreme heat on this particular date.

Comparable May 26th records from Incheon show highs ranging between 20°C and 29°C across recent decades, with the most common outcomes clustering around 24–27°C. The 2023 reading was 26.3°C; 2022 recorded 25.1°C. This historical spread indicates the market's temperature ranges likely span multiple plausible outcomes, yet the nil probability on the highest band suggests either conservative positioning or that traders view cooler-to-moderate conditions as more probable than peak heat for this specific date.

The key variable traders should monitor is the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any early monsoon moisture intrusion in late May 2026. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues its extended forecast around mid-May, which will clarify whether blocking patterns or low-pressure systems dominate the period. Any shift in seasonal timing—earlier-than-normal monsoon onset or delayed high-pressure establishment—would materially alter the probability distribution across temperature bands.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.