Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 25 May 2026 will be shaped by the transition into early summer, when the Korean peninsula typically experiences warming ahead of the monsoon season. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about temperature thresholds or awaiting clarity on which specific range this market settles into—the market description references Incheon International Airport as the official measurement point, which sits slightly cooler than central Seoul due to its coastal location near Incheon.

Historical May temperatures at Incheon show considerable variability depending on weather patterns. Over the past decade, late-May highs have ranged from roughly 20°C during cooler, wetter years to 28–30°C during warm, high-pressure systems. The 0% reading likely reflects that no single temperature band has yet attracted sufficient conviction, rather than genuine confidence that an extreme outcome is impossible. Comparable years with similar atmospheric setups—such as May 2018 and May 2023—saw highs in the 24–27°C range, providing a reasonable baseline for typical conditions.

The key variable traders should monitor is the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any early-season tropical moisture from the south. South Korea's Meteorological Administration typically issues detailed 10-day forecasts by mid-May, which will sharpen expectations closer to the settlement date. Any significant shifts in the jet stream or early tropical activity could push temperatures notably higher or lower than the historical median, making the timing of official forecasts critical for resolving the current probability distribution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.