Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

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Market context

Early June in Seoul typically sits at the threshold between spring's mild conditions and the onset of summer warmth. The 4th of June falls during a transitional period when daytime highs commonly range between 24–28°C, though anomalous heat waves can push temperatures several degrees higher. Historical records from Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station for this market, show considerable year-to-year variation at this date, with some years recording highs near 20°C during cooler springs and others reaching into the low 30s during early heat events.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of moderate temperatures rather than extreme heat for this specific date. This aligns with typical early-June patterns, though it underestimates the frequency with which Seoul experiences unseasonably warm days during this window. Comparable years with strong high-pressure systems moving into the Korean peninsula during early June have produced readings in the 29–32°C range, indicating that whilst extreme heat remains less probable, it remains plausible rather than impossible.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts from late May onwards, particularly any signals of high-pressure ridging or warm air masses from the south. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal outlooks in mid-May that can shift expectations for early June conditions. Any El Niño or La Niña patterns active during spring 2026 will influence whether subtropical air reaches the peninsula during this window, though such signals remain months away from confirmation.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.