Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21?

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Market context

Seoul has warmed into early summer, but the current setup still points to a fairly ordinary June peak rather than an extreme heat event. AccuWeather’s June outlook for the city shows daily highs mostly in the low-to-mid 30s °C on the Fahrenheit scale equivalent, with the monthly average high around 85-86°F, while other June climate summaries put Seoul’s typical daytime range nearer 19-28°C and describe the month as warm, humid and only gradually turning towards the rainy season.[1][3][6]

That makes the current **0% YES** crowd view easier to read: it reflects how rare a very high daily maximum is for mid-June compared with the more common upper-20s °C outcome. In comparable June patterns, Seoul often posts highs around 26-28°C, with late-month humidity and showers more likely to cap temperatures than drive them into exceptional territory.[2][3][6] For a market settled on the highest temperature at Incheon International Airport Station, the key question is not whether it will feel warm, but whether the afternoon peak can break decisively above the usual early-summer band.

Traders should watch the short-range forecast from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which is the most relevant live guide to whether heat, cloud cover or rain will suppress the day’s maximum.[9] The main catalysts are the timing of any showers, onshore flow off the Yellow Sea, and whether forecast highs keep drifting towards or away from the upper-20s °C range in the final hours before the noon UTC settlement cut-off. If the forecast firms towards a dry, sunny afternoon, the upside case strengthens; if cloud and rainfall increase, the market stays anchored to a lower maximum.[3][5][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.