Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1?

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Market context

Seoul's early June weather typically transitions into the pre-monsoon season, with daytime highs ranging between 24–28°C at Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that June 1st will fall within normal seasonal bounds rather than experiencing an anomalous heat spike. Recent meteorological patterns across East Asia have shown typical late-spring conditions without the extreme heat events that occasionally characterise mid-to-late June in the region.

Historical data from Incheon Airport shows June 1st temperatures have rarely exceeded 30°C in the past two decades, with most years settling in the mid-to-upper 20s. The highest recorded temperature on this specific date reached approximately 29°C in 2018, providing a practical ceiling for what constitutes an outlier event. This historical consistency underpins the current market pricing, as traders appear confident that atmospheric conditions on this particular date will remain within established norms rather than producing the kind of early-season heat surge that would push temperatures into the 30°C+ range.

The South Korean Meteorological Administration publishes its extended forecasts roughly ten days prior to the settlement date. Traders should monitor these releases for any signals of unusual high-pressure systems or warm air advection from the south that could shift expectations. Additionally, any significant weather pattern changes across the broader East Asian region—particularly shifts in the Pacific subtropical high or early monsoon onset—could alter the probability distribution, though such dramatic departures from June 1st's typical conditions remain statistically uncommon.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.