Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The 0% YES probability for Seoul’s highest temperature on 6 July 2026 reflects a sudden shift in the last 24 hours: monsoon rains have intensified over central inland cities, with heavy downpours expected to suppress daytime highs well below the seasonal peak. Recent data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows current conditions at 26°C (feeling like 28°C) with 30% precipitation probability, confirming that the wet season is actively cooling the air rather than building heat.

Historically, Seoul’s July highs average 28°C, but the monsoon season (Jangma) routinely drives temperatures down to 21–24°C during heavy rainfall periods, as seen in long-term averages where 16 days of rain occur monthly. Comparable cases from past monsoon years show that even with high humidity, sustained cloud cover and rain can cap highs near 24°C, making any outcome above 28°C highly improbable under current wet conditions.

Traders should monitor the KMA’s short-range forecasts for the next 48 hours, particularly updates on rainfall intensity and cloud cover over Seoul, as these directly dictate whether temperatures stay suppressed. A recent report from PredictWind highlights that July is Korea’s wettest month, with central regions like Seoul receiving the heaviest rain, so any announcement of reduced precipitation or clearing skies would be the key catalyst to reassess the probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.