Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently bracing for the peak of its monsoon season, where July delivers the year’s most intense heat and humidity, often pushing midday temperatures to feel like over 34°C despite daily highs averaging near 30°C. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific high-temperature range reflects the extreme volatility of this period, where short, heavy downpours can rapidly cool the air before the sun re-emerges to create a steamy, sauna-like effect. Historical data shows July 2026 daily highs in Seoul ranging from 81°F to 91°F (27°C to 33°C), with an average of 85°F (29°C), yet meteorologists warn this summer could be South Korea’s hottest yet, with temperatures potentially soaring beyond 40°C in record-breaking waves[1][4].

Traders must monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s (KMA) updated three-month outlook, which forecasts higher-than-average temperatures and rainfall for June through August, alongside real-time pressure systems that dictate the timing of the Jangma monsoon rains[6]. Recent reports from the Straits Times highlight that Seoul recorded a historic July high of 37.1°C on 8 July 2008, setting a benchmark for potential extremes this year, while the KMA predicts frequent intense downpours that mimic subtropical conditions akin to Southeast Asia[4][6]. The settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 3 July 2026 requires watching the Wunderground data for Incheon Intl Airport Station specifically, as coastal humidity and rain clearance will be the primary catalysts determining the final temperature reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.