Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

A band of rain is moving into the capital area while the broader July heat pattern remains intact, so the near-term question is whether cloud and showers cap the day’s maximum at Incheon rather than allowing a clean run into the low 30s. A Korean forecast report on 23 July said Friday would bring rain mainly to the capital area and Gangwon, with southern Seoul and northern Incheon/Gyeonggi seeing 20–60 mm and most of the country still facing apparent temperatures above 33°C.[7]

That combination matters because July in Seoul is normally hot, humid and prone to rain, with average highs around 85°F and monthly highs commonly spanning 80°F to 94°F, while long-term July guidance also points to frequent rainfall and persistent cloud cover.[1][11][12] Historic July readings show the ceiling can be much higher than the seasonal mean, with Seoul’s July record at 38.4°C, but the market’s 0% implied probability suggests traders are treating an extreme heat outcome as very unlikely for this specific day.[13]

The main catalysts are the timing and coverage of the rain band, plus whether it arrives early enough to suppress daytime heating at Incheon Intl Airport Station before the daily maximum is set. The market resolves from the highest temperature recorded on Wunderground for that station on 24 July, so short-lived breaks in cloud, wind shifts, or delayed showers matter more than the overall daily average.[7][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.