Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing heavy rainfall and thunderstorms this morning, with a 96% precipitation probability and 29mm of rain expected, which immediately suppresses any likelihood of extreme heat today [4]. This wet, overcast start to 17 July explains the crowd-implied 0% probability for a high-temperature outlier, as monsoon conditions typically cap daytime highs well below record thresholds.

Historical data frames this zero probability as rational rather than speculative. While Seoul posted a record 37.7°C in early July 2025—the hottest day in 117 years—such spikes occur during dry, stagnant air masses, not active monsoon periods [2]. The monthly average high for July is 27°C, with record extremes reaching 38.4°C only under exceptional heatwave conditions, whereas current forecasts predict highs near 30°C with significant cloud cover and rain [3][10]. The 2025 record was an anomaly driven by early-July dryness, contrasting sharply with today’s wet onset.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground history for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once the settlement window closes, but the immediate catalyst is the persistence of the monsoon trough. The Korea Meteorological Agency confirms July is the heart of the Asian monsoon season, with average rainfall peaking at 395mm and 50% precipitation chances, making a 37°C+ day statistically improbable under current conditions [10]. No heatwave announcements are scheduled, and the forecast for the next days remains close to the 30°C historical average, reinforcing the market’s bearish stance on extreme heat [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.