Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing a persistent heatwave with apparent temperatures forecast to exceed 38°C, prompting the Korea Meteorological Administration to issue its inaugural Heat Wave Emergency Warning for nearby regions [6]. Despite this extreme real-world heat, the crowd-implied probability for the highest temperature on 16 July 2026 remains at 0% YES, suggesting traders expect the Incheon Intl Airport Station reading to fall below the market’s specific threshold. This divergence is notable given that July 2026 in Seoul has already been slightly cooler than the historical average by 0.7°C, with recent daily highs hovering around 28.4°C rather than the mid-to-high 30s typically seen later in the month [4].

Historical data frames this low probability as rational, as July is the rainiest month in Korea with over 20 rainy days and heavy monsoon activity that frequently suppresses peak temperatures in central inland cities like Seoul [8]. While 2025 saw record-breaking tropical nights and daily highs exceeding 40°C in certain regions, the current 2026 trend shows a moderation compared to those extremes, with average highs for early July sitting near 29.7°C and only moderately rising to 31.6°C by the end of the month [4][10]. The 0% probability likely reflects the high likelihood of rainfall or cloud cover clearing the heat before the station records a temperature high enough to trigger a YES resolution.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s hourly heat alert updates and the specific precipitation forecasts for the Incheon area, as a sudden shift in the monsoon front could drastically alter the day’s maximum reading [6]. The settlement depends entirely on the Wunderground record for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, which may differ from the broader Seoul city heat alerts currently dominating news cycles [market description]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 16 July, the next 6 hours of weather data will be the sole determinant, making real-time station readings the critical catalyst for any potential probability shift.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.