Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing foggy conditions with temperatures near 11°C, a stark contrast to the scorching heat typically expected in mid-July. The market’s 0% probability for a “YES” outcome likely reflects a misunderstanding of the settlement mechanics, as the frontrunner outcome is actually 28°C at 39% probability, not a binary yes/no event. Traders should note that the market resolves to a specific temperature range containing the highest reading at Incheon International Airport, not a simple pass/fail condition.

Historical data frames the current pricing as conservative; Seoul recorded a record 37.7°C for early July in 2025, the hottest day in 117 years, while 2024 saw 37.1°C during the same period. July is the warmest month on average, with daily highs typically increasing from 81°F to 85°F, rarely falling below 74°F. The 28°C frontrunner suggests the market anticipates a cooler day than recent record-breakers, possibly due to seasonal variability or cloud cover, despite August usually being the peak warm month at 30.5°C average high.

Key catalysts include the official Wunderground reading for Incheon Intl Airport Station at 12:00Z on 15 July 2026, which will determine the final resolution. Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration and local weather reports for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation, as July rainfall averages 201.9 mm and can suppress temperatures. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate highs between 82°F and 91°F, suggesting the 28°C outcome remains plausible if conditions remain stable.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.