Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer heat typically peaks in late July, with daily highs routinely exceeding 30°C during this period. The 14th falls within the core of the Korean peninsula's monsoon season, when atmospheric conditions favour warm, humid air masses from the south. Recent meteorological patterns across East Asia show typical seasonal progression, with no exceptional heat waves currently forecast for early-to-mid July 2026.

Historical records from Incheon International Airport, the designated measurement station, show July temperatures have ranged from 28°C to 36°C over the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of moderate rather than extreme heat for this specific date. Comparable July 14th observations from previous years cluster around 30–33°C, though outlier days have reached the mid-30s during particularly intense heat episodes.

The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data pull from Incheon station on the resolution date. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts released in late June and early July, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks with reasonable confidence intervals. Any significant atmospheric patterns—such as a blocking high-pressure system or tropical cyclone activity affecting the Korean peninsula—would shift expectations materially. The current probability floor suggests the market is anchored to typical rather than exceptional July conditions.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.