Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently sweltering under 35°C heat with miserable humidity as the monsoon season lingers into mid-July, yet the market for a record-breaking high on 13 July remains priced at zero probability. Yesterday’s readings at the Incheon Intl Airport Station hit 35°C (95°F), confirming that sweltering conditions are already established, but the crowd implies no chance of the temperature exceeding the upper bounds of the current forecast ranges. This flat pricing suggests traders view the existing heat as typical rather than anomalous, despite the oppressive feel caused by humidity levels above 80% [3][4].

Historical data frames this 0% probability as rational, given that July daytime maximums in Seoul typically average 28°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 30°C even during peak summer heat [2][5]. While AccuWeather forecasts a range up to 34°C (94°F) for the month, the average high sits at 31°C (87°F), meaning a spike significantly above current levels would require an unprecedented break in the monsoon pattern [1]. Comparable cases from recent years show that even during the hottest days of Jangma, temperatures seldom breach 36°C, reinforcing the view that the current heat is within expected seasonal variance rather than a precursor to a record event [4].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden shifts in precipitation intensity or wind direction that could clear the humid air and allow temperatures to spike further [9]. The primary catalyst is the potential for the monsoon rains to clear completely by midday, which historically allows for rapid temperature rises on bright, sunny days [4]. With 60% probability of precipitation currently forecast for the next 21 hours, any announcement of a dry spell or a shift in wind direction from the south could be the trigger for a rapid repricing, though current schedules suggest rain will remain concentrated [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.