Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently under a persistent heatwave with clear skies and temperatures feeling near 33°C, a sharp escalation from the mostly cloudy, 28°C conditions recorded just 24 hours ago at the Incheon Intl Airport Station [3][9]. This rapid shift from monsoon-like humidity to dry, intense solar heating has driven the crowd-implied probability for any extreme high-temperature outcome to 0%, as the market now expects the day’s peak to remain within the standard July range of 21–28°C rather than breaching historical outliers [2][4].

Historical data for mid-July in Seoul shows average highs of 28°C, with the month’s warmest day typically reaching 28.9°C, making a deviation far above this threshold statistically improbable without a confirmed tropical storm or record-breaking heat dome [2][10]. The current 0% probability aligns with these long-term averages, as even the hottest days in recent years rarely exceed 32–33°C at the Incheon station, and today’s forecast caps at 33°C (feeling like 33°C), well below the extreme thresholds required for a “YES” resolution [9].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s hourly heatwave updates and Wunderground’s real-time station data for Incheon (RKSI) as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC today [9]. Any sudden shift in wind direction from the south, which could intensify the heat, or an unexpected rain shower from the monsoon belt, would be the primary catalysts altering the day’s peak temperature trajectory [4][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.