Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently gripped by monsoon conditions, with yesterday’s peak temperature barely reaching 27°C amid heavy cloud cover and 100% humidity, a stark shift from the dry heat seen earlier in the week. This immediate drop explains the crowd’s 0% YES probability for a record-breaking high on 10 July, as the prevailing weather pattern suppresses extreme temperatures rather than amplifying them.

Historically, July in Seoul averages 28°C with high humidity, but the hottest days typically occur in August, when temperatures can climb near 38°C. Past data shows that early July often sees cooler spells, with temperatures dipping to 19°C on 5 July, while the peak of the month reaches only 29°C. Given this pattern, the current 0% probability aligns with the expectation that mid-July will not deliver the extreme highs seen later in summer.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden shifts in monsoon intensity or wind direction, as these could alter temperature trajectories. Recent reports from Chosun indicate that surrounding sea surface temperatures are the second-highest in a decade, which may eventually fuel hotter conditions, but immediate relief from the monsoon remains the dominant factor. Watch for announcements on tropical storm activity, as even a minor system could disrupt the current cooling trend.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.