Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 19 August 2026 will be determined by monsoon patterns and any tropical systems affecting the Korean peninsula during late summer. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about temperature thresholds or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts as the date approaches. August typically brings Seoul's hottest conditions of the year, with daily highs regularly exceeding 30°C, though Incheon International Airport—the official measurement station—often records slightly cooler readings than central Seoul due to its coastal location.

Historical August data from Incheon shows the station has recorded temperatures between 28–34°C on mid-August dates over the past decade, with extreme heat events pushing toward 35°C during particularly intense high-pressure systems. The 2018 Korean heat wave saw Incheon reach 34.6°C on 1 August, establishing a reference point for what constitutes unusually warm conditions at this location. Comparable late-August dates typically fall in the 29–32°C range, making the probability distribution across temperature bands critical to understanding current market pricing.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Korea Meteorological Administration as August progresses, since approaching typhoons can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall or intensify heat through pre-system atmospheric conditions. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 19 August, requiring resolution via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—a distinction that may affect edge cases where hourly readings fluctuate near threshold boundaries.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.