Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 16 August 2026 will be shaped by the typical East Asian summer monsoon pattern that dominates the Korean peninsula in mid-August. The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will record the daily high, rather than scepticism about the event itself occurring. Recent shifts in global atmospheric circulation have made late-summer Seoul temperatures increasingly volatile, with some years seeing peaks above 35°C whilst others remain constrained below 32°C during the same calendar window.

Historical August records at Incheon International Airport show the station has recorded highs ranging from 28°C to 37°C across different years in this fortnight. The 1990s and 2000s produced several years with sustained heat waves pushing temperatures above 34°C, whilst the past decade has seen more frequent moderation due to increased cloud cover and moisture from typhoon systems tracking through the region. The specific resolution methodology—using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—introduces a technical precision layer that traders should verify against historical discrepancies between the two sources.

Traders monitoring this market should track typhoon activity across the Western Pacific in early August 2026, as storm systems can dramatically suppress daytime highs through cloud cover and precipitation. The Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days ahead, will provide the most reliable signal for atmospheric conditions. Any significant high-pressure system establishing over the Korean peninsula in the days immediately preceding 16 August would favour higher temperature outcomes, whilst tropical cyclone proximity would constrain them.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.