Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 14 August 2026 will be shaped by the tail end of East Asia's summer monsoon season, when the Korean peninsula typically experiences its most intense heat and humidity. The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will be recorded at Incheon International Airport, the official resolution point, rather than doubt about whether extreme heat will occur. August in Seoul routinely produces daily highs exceeding 30°C, with recent years showing a trend towards temperatures in the 32–35°C range during mid-month heat waves.

Historical data from Incheon Airport shows that mid-August temperatures have clustered around 29–33°C over the past two decades, though outlier years have pushed into the 34–36°C territory during particularly intense heat domes. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and its Day High & Low summary matters operationally: the former captures sub-hourly station readings and is the binding resolution source here. Traders should note that Incheon Airport's coastal location moderates temperatures slightly compared to central Seoul, typically running 1–2°C cooler than the city centre.

The key variable traders should monitor is the timing and intensity of any typhoon activity or upper-level trough systems that could arrive in early-to-mid August 2026. The Korean Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecasts, issued weekly, will provide the most actionable signal for whether monsoon patterns hold or break. Any significant weather system arriving before 14 August could suppress daily highs by several degrees, materially shifting which temperature band resolves.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.