Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

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Market context

Seattle's weather on 24 May 2026 will be measured against historical May temperatures at Sea-Tac Airport, where late spring typically brings mild conditions before the region's warmer summer pattern establishes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the settlement range to remain unresolved or are heavily discounting specific temperature brackets. Recent Pacific Northwest forecasting patterns show May temperatures at Sea-Tac ranging between 65–75°F on average, with occasional warm spells pushing into the low 80s when high-pressure systems dominate the region.

Historical context matters considerably here. Seattle's May record high stands at 89°F, set in 1960, but such extremes remain rare. The past decade's May data shows Sea-Tac rarely exceeds 80°F before late May, with the airport's typical high around 70°F during the third week of the month. Traders should note that late May warming depends heavily on ridging patterns from the eastern Pacific, which typically favour temperatures in the 72–78°F band rather than sustained heat.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 24 May, capturing the full day's high as recorded by Wunderground's Sea-Tac station. Atmospheric conditions 18 months ahead remain impossible to forecast with precision, but the current probability distribution suggests market participants are either awaiting clearer seasonal signals or treating this as a low-conviction market. Resolution hinges entirely on official Weather Underground data from the airport station, with no discretionary factors involved.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.