Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

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Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport recorded a maximum of 26.1°C on 25 May 2025, placing that date firmly in the late-spring warming pattern typical for the Île-de-France region. The settlement window closes at midday on 25 May 2026, meaning the highest temperature must be captured before noon local time or traders rely on preliminary readings that may shift as the day progresses. Current crowd pricing at 0% suggests no confidence in any specific temperature band, which reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that the day will be cool.

Historical May 25th data from Paris-Le Bourget shows considerable variability. The station's records indicate maxima ranging from 17°C to 28°C across different years, with an approximate median around 22–23°C. The 2025 reading of 26.1°C sits in the warmer quartile but remains within normal bounds for late May. This spread underscores why temperature prediction markets at this granularity attract limited conviction—seasonal norms are broad enough that most reasonable outcomes fall within plausible ranges.

Traders should monitor European weather models released in the five days preceding 25 May 2026, particularly ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Atmospheric pressure patterns over the Atlantic and any high-pressure systems anchoring over continental Europe will be decisive. Spring weather volatility means early-May forecasts carry limited skill; actionable signals typically emerge within 10 days of the target date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.