Highest temperature in Paris on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will record its highest temperature on 23 May 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather database. Late May in the Paris region typically sits between 18–24°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings into the upper 20s or low 30s. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle up to that point.

Historical May temperatures at Le Bourget show considerable year-to-year variation. The station recorded 29.4°C on 23 May 2015 and 26.1°C on the same date in 2019, whilst cooler years saw highs around 17–19°C. May heat events in northern France remain less predictable than summer extremes, as the jet stream positioning and Atlantic moisture patterns still exert substantial influence. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending meteorological data.

Traders should monitor European weather model consensus from mid-May onwards, particularly the positioning of high-pressure systems over the continent and any Atlantic low-pressure intrusions. France Météo and Météo-France typically issue reliable 10-day forecasts by early May. Any significant warming trend across western Europe in the preceding weeks would shift expectations upward; conversely, persistent cloud cover or northerly flow would suppress daytime maxima. The actual temperature range options available in the market will determine which outcomes carry meaningful odds once trading becomes active.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on May 23? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.