Highest temperature in Paris on June 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is forecast to experience mild early-summer conditions on 2 June 2026, with meteorological models currently pointing towards a high between 18–22°C for the day. This represents typical late-spring weather for the Île-de-France region at that time of year, neither exceptionally warm nor cool. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in confidence that the temperature will fall below the lowest threshold being offered in the resolution brackets.

Historical June data from Paris-Le Bourget shows daily highs typically range from 20–25°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 28–30°C during heat waves. The station's records indicate that temperatures below 18°C on a June day are uncommon but not unprecedented, occurring roughly once every five to ten years when Atlantic low-pressure systems dominate. Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF are converging on near-normal conditions rather than anomalous cold, which would normally support higher probability on mid-range brackets.

Traders should monitor updates from Météo-France issued in the days immediately preceding 2 June, particularly any revision towards cooler Atlantic air masses or blocking high-pressure patterns that could suppress daytime heating. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, meaning the final observation will capture the peak daily temperature recorded at the airport station. Any significant shift in the extended forecast—such as an early-season cold front—would be the primary catalyst for repricing away from the current consensus.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.