Highest temperature in Paris on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport recorded its highest temperature on 27 July last year at 28.3°C, well below the 30°C threshold that would typically mark an exceptional heat event for late July in the region. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that temperatures on 27 July 2026 will remain moderate, though the settlement window closes at midday, capturing only morning and early afternoon readings rather than the full diurnal cycle.

Historical July temperatures at Le Bourget show considerable year-to-year variation. The station's all-time July record stands at 39.5°C, set in 2022 during an extreme heat wave, whilst typical late-July highs range between 25–28°C. The 2023 and 2024 summers both saw peaks above 30°C during comparable periods, indicating that readings in the 28–32°C band occur with regularity roughly every other year. This historical spread means the current zero probability reflects either a specific forecast signal or minimal trading activity rather than a genuine absence of risk.

European weather forecasting agencies will publish their 10–14 day outlooks in early July, with updates becoming more granular as the date approaches. Météo-France's forecasts typically gain reliability within five days of the target date. Any significant Atlantic pressure system or heat dome tracking towards northern France in late July would shift market expectations materially. Traders should monitor whether anomalous warmth develops across western Europe in the preceding week, as such patterns often extend into the Paris region.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.