Highest temperature in Paris on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris has swung from early-July heat back towards a more breathable pattern, and the latest short-range forecasts point to a clear, warm day rather than another extreme spike. One local outlook for Wednesday puts Paris near 15-29°C with sunshine, while broader July guidance still centres the city’s daily highs in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius rather than the 30s seen during the recent heatwave.[7][2][5]

That context helps explain why the market is clustered around the mid-20s outcomes rather than the extremes. On the current board, 26°C leads at 45% and 25°C follows at 42%, which is consistent with a settled summer day and a ceiling that is still some distance below the 40°C conditions that have driven recent headlines in France.[1][6][11] July climatology also supports that framing: Paris typically sits around 24°C for daytime maxima, with a broad spread but relatively few days far above the low 30s.[10][4]

For traders, the main watchpoints are any updated local forecast from Wednesday morning onwards, plus the timing of peak afternoon heat at Paris-Le Bourget rather than the citywide average. The settlement source is the Wunderground history page for Paris-Le Bourget Airport, so late-day sun, cloud cover, or a brief hot surge can matter more than what is observed earlier in the session.[Market description] If official or near-real-time forecasts nudge the expected high up or down by 1°C, that can quickly shift the balance between the adjacent bins.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 22? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.