Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is forecast to experience typical mid-August conditions on 15 August 2026, with meteorological models currently pointing towards a high in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius. The 1% crowd probability reflects the extreme unlikelihood of temperatures exceeding the upper thresholds this market tracks, given that August heat waves in the Paris region rarely push beyond 30°C even during exceptional years.

Historical data from Météo-France shows that temperatures at Le Bourget in mid-August average around 24–25°C, with the station's all-time August record standing at 40.3°C (recorded in 2003 during Europe's exceptional heat event). That singular outlier underscores how rare extreme heat becomes at this location; over the past two decades, August 15th specifically has typically seen highs between 22–27°C. The current market pricing suggests traders view the probability of crossing into notably higher ranges as negligible given standard seasonal patterns.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather model updates from mid-August 2026, particularly runs from Météo-France and ECMWF, which will refine forecasts roughly 10–14 days before settlement. Any significant ridge of high pressure developing over continental Europe in early-to-mid August could shift probabilities, though such patterns would need to be exceptionally pronounced to drive Le Bourget into record territory. Resolution will depend on the specific Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, making data source verification critical at settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Is this market available outside the US?

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Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

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