Highest temperature in NYC on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's weather on 24 May 2026 will be measured against historical May patterns at LaGuardia Airport, where late spring typically brings warming trends as the Atlantic coast transitions toward summer conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as too uncertain to price meaningfully at this stage. With settlement nearly two years away, the absence of near-term catalysts has left the market dormant rather than reflecting genuine conviction about temperature ranges.

May temperatures at LaGuardia historically cluster between the mid-60s and low-80s Fahrenheit, with record highs around 94°F set during anomalous heat events. The current probability distribution appears to reflect the sheer difficulty of forecasting specific temperature bands nearly 24 months forward, where seasonal normals offer the only reliable anchor. Comparable May days at the airport show considerable year-to-year variance driven by Atlantic storm systems, high-pressure ridges, and early-season tropical moisture—variables that remain essentially random at this distance.

Traders monitoring this market should track broader climate patterns as 2026 approaches, particularly whether the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or El Niño conditions favour warmer or cooler springs along the US East Coast. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks, typically issued three months ahead, will provide the first meaningful signal. Until late February or early March 2026, when actual forecast models gain predictive skill, this market will likely remain thinly traded and heavily dependent on whoever establishes the initial price anchors.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.