Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

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Market context

The National Weather Service's latest forecast for New York City on 6 June 2026 shows typical early-summer conditions, with a high pressure system expected to dominate the Northeast. Current modelling suggests temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit at LaGuardia Airport, though this remains subject to revision as the date approaches. The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will be recorded, rather than doubt about whether measurable heat will occur.

Historical June data from LaGuardia shows considerable variability. The station's records indicate June highs typically range from 75°F to 88°F, with extreme outliers reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The 1994 heat wave produced a 96°F reading on 6 June itself, demonstrating that unusually warm conditions are possible but uncommon. Most years see temperatures cluster in the 78–85°F range for this date, which should anchor expectations around mid-range settlement categories.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Atlantic hurricane season's early development and any tropical systems that might influence Northeast weather patterns by early June. The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlooks, updated regularly through spring 2026, will signal whether above or below-normal temperatures are favoured. Short-range forecasts become actionable only in the final week before settlement, when the National Weather Service's five-day outlooks provide greater precision on the specific high temperature LaGuardia will record.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.